Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 2.660665 3.096109 3.578248 4.151406 4.813975 5.555651 6.448759
2026-01-18 1.970742 2.551213 3.262503 4.197013 5.391509 6.866376 8.825377
2026-01-25 1.521247 2.149815 2.986821 4.180209 5.835600 8.048536 11.230172
2026-02-01 1.154854 1.758721 2.621746 3.940600 5.900901 8.702640 13.007793
2026-02-08 0.924382 1.502614 2.381458 3.807863 6.058696 9.466712 15.012033
2026-02-15 0.776082 1.337129 2.237873 3.780190 6.346359 10.434978 17.432212
2026-02-22 0.693150 1.258618 2.212382 3.925974 6.915854 11.901749 20.828058
2026-03-01 0.597232 1.139086 2.096149 3.894617 7.174487 12.880498 23.532156
2026-03-08 0.514182 1.027059 1.973004 3.826942 7.350710 13.728024 26.105652
2026-03-15 0.454480 0.948040 1.896037 3.828587 7.646398 14.814991 29.242084
2026-03-22 0.437425 0.949557 1.970514 4.128234 8.544103 17.119050 34.956469
2026-03-29 0.400301 0.903431 1.943488 4.220120 9.042023 18.715729 39.493734
2026-04-05 0.363183 0.853361 1.905378 4.293258 9.532991 20.403777 44.534858
2026-04-12 0.325466 0.795943 1.843934 4.309642 9.912722 21.928674 49.481651
2026-04-19 0.289486 0.736171 1.767930 4.281904 10.192377 23.281766 54.256177
2026-04-26 0.244124 0.645576 1.607094 4.033192 9.933721 23.425796 56.367598
2026-05-03 0.212177 0.582501 1.500756 3.896274 9.913777 24.098646 59.777435
2026-05-10 0.190422 0.541806 1.442377 3.867586 10.149768 25.392800 64.829970
2026-05-17 0.179907 0.529381 1.453280 4.016523 10.850022 27.884833 73.134086
2026-05-24 0.162287 0.493957 1.398555 3.984413 11.079855 29.252501 78.812617
2026-05-31 0.145249 0.457054 1.333930 3.915197 11.201074 30.362029 83.981115
2026-06-07 0.132830 0.431581 1.296871 3.916874 11.515342 32.011673 90.799566
2026-06-14 0.131993 0.441550 1.362477 4.223264 12.726603 36.196804 105.033697